Enough

Retirement Number Calculator

How much portfolio do you actually need to retire? With Social Security and pension offsets, and cost-of-living overlay for 260+ cities worldwide.

$/mo

50

3050 year horizon80

You need to retire at 50 with $5,000/mo

$1.6M

SWR:: 3.65%Annual income:: $60,000

60/40 stocks/bonds · 90% historical survival · Plan to age 100

How much you need by retirement age (at $5,000/mo)

$0$500K$1.0M$1.5M$2.0M304050607080Retirement Age$1.6M

Different income levels at age 50

$3,000/mo

$986,301

$5,000/mo

$1.6M

$7,500/mo

$2.5M

$10,000/mo

$3.3M

How allocation affects your number at age 50

100/0

$1.7M

SWR: 3.6%

80/20

$1.6M

SWR: 3.8%

60/40

$1.6M

SWR: 3.6%

40/60

$1.8M

SWR: 3.4%

20/80

$2.2M

SWR: 2.7%

But life isn't a straight line.

Kids, a new home, moving abroad, career changes — your number shifts with every life event. Get a personalized plan that adapts.

+ Life events+ Family size+ Tax by country+ What-if scenarios

FIRE Calculator

Compare your FIRE number across 260+ cities worldwide.

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The honest math

Your retirement number = (annual spending − guaranteed income) × 25.

The generic advice is “save 25× your spending.” That's right for someone with no Social Security and no pension. For most Americans, the actual portfolio need is smaller because Social Security covers part of the spending. A household spending $70,000/year with $30,000/year expected from Social Security needs to cover a $40,000 gap, which is $1M at 4%. Not $1.75M.

The 25× multiplier comes from William Bengen's 1994 research — 4% initial withdrawal from a 50/50 or 60/40 US stock/bond portfolio survived 30 years in every historical US scenario through the 1960s. The Trinity Study (1998) extended the analysis; the rule has held up for traditional 30-year retirements ever since. For a 60-year-old planning retirement to 90, 4% is a defensible starting point. For a 40-year-old planning retirement to 90, 3.3% is more honest.

Sensitivity — how Social Security changes the portfolio need

At 4% withdrawal, every $1,000/month of Social Security reduces your portfolio need by $300,000. Most working Americans qualify for $1,500– $3,500/month depending on career earnings and claim age. Running the numbers both ways — “no SS” (the conservative case) and “with expected SS” (the realistic case) — bounds the true need.

Annual spendingNo Social Security$1.5K/mo SS$2.5K/mo SS$3.5K/mo SS
$40,000/yr$1,000,000$550,000$250,000—
$60,000/yr$1,500,000$1,050,000$750,000$450,000
$80,000/yr$2,000,000$1,550,000$1,250,000$950,000
$100,000/yr$2,500,000$2,050,000$1,750,000$1,450,000
$150,000/yr$3,750,000$3,300,000$3,000,000$2,700,000

At the 4% rule with spending reduced by Social Security. For a 30-year horizon. Get your personal SS estimate at ssa.gov using your earnings history — general “average” numbers understate the variability.

When should you claim Social Security?

Claim age% of full benefit
62 (early)70%
67 (full)100%
70 (delayed)124%

Average life expectancy at 65 is 83 for US men, 86 for US women. Most healthy retirees with portfolio to bridge the gap should delay to 70. Each year delayed after full retirement age adds 8% to the lifetime benefit — a hard-to-beat guaranteed annuity-equivalent return.

Geo-arbitrage (still applies, just differently)

FIRE writers spend a lot of energy on expat retirement because the portfolio leverage is dramatic. Traditional retirees sometimes feel this is only for early retirees — it's not. A 65-year-old couple spending $80,000/year in Miami with $50K/yr Social Security needs $750K ($30K gap × 25). The same couple in Mérida spending $45,000/year with the same Social Security needs essentially $0 in portfolio — SS alone covers the Mérida cost of living.

Your Social Security follows you internationally. For most countries, there's a US tax treaty that prevents double taxation. Medicare does NOT follow you — you need private international health insurance (typically $3K–$8K/yr per person depending on country and age) or you use the local public system if residency permits.

The traditional-retiree geo-arbitrage case is less about reducing the portfolio number (you've already saved) and more about extending what the portfolio buys you. Your $750K retirement in Miami becomes comfortable $1.2M-equivalent in Mérida or Cuenca. Families stay in the picture (cheap flights vs multiple family trips). Climate improves. Healthcare is often better, not worse.

Healthcare — the expense nobody models honestly

Fidelity estimates the average US retiree couple spends $330,000 on healthcare over retirement. That's an average — variance is large. The breakdown: Medicare Part A (hospital) is free; Part B (outpatient) is ~$175/mo per person in 2026, scales with income; Part D (prescriptions) is ~$35–$75/mo; Medigap (supplement) is $150–$300/mo per person; Medicare Advantage bundles some of these but restricts networks.

Budget $500–$800/month per person post-65 for healthcare premiums and out-of-pocket — that's $12K–$20K/yr for a couple, on top of whatever long-term-care reserve you decide to hold. Long-term care is the genuinely large unmodeled expense: ~$100K/yr for nursing-home level care, 1 in 3 people will need some at some point. Long-term-care insurance is an option (premiums $2K–$8K/yr) or you self-insure with extra portfolio reserve ($300K–$500K earmarked).

Pre-65 early-retirement healthcare is a different problem — ACA marketplace subsidies apply up to ~400% of federal poverty level, so keeping taxable income below $80K/yr for a couple can dramatically reduce premiums. This is where Barista FIRE and aggressive Roth conversion strategies interact with the retirement-number math.

Frequently asked questions

What is a retirement number?

Your retirement number is the portfolio size needed to fund your desired lifestyle without running out of money over your planned retirement horizon. The standard formula is annual spending × 25 (the 4% rule from Bengen 1994) for a 30-year retirement. For 40+ year horizons (early retirement), 30× is more defensible. If you have Social Security or a pension, you subtract expected annual benefits from the spending figure before multiplying — you only need portfolio for the gap.

How much do I really need to retire?

Three numbers drive the answer: your annual spending, your expected income from Social Security or pensions, and your withdrawal-rate assumption. A household spending $70,000/year with $30,000/year expected from Social Security needs to cover a $40,000 gap, which is $1M at 4% (25×) or $1.33M at 3% (33×). Without Social Security, the same spending requires $1.75M or $2.33M. This calculator lets you adjust all three variables.

What withdrawal rate should I use for traditional retirement?

For a 30-year retirement starting at age 60–65, the 4% rule (Bengen 1994, Trinity 1998) is defensible and well-validated historically. For a 40–50-year retirement (early retirement at 40–50), use 3.3% (30×) or lower. For very short horizons (10–15 years), 5–6% can be reasonable with active spending flexibility. Today's elevated equity valuations (CAPE ~30) argue for being conservative — Pfau's framework suggests 3.25% as the starting point regardless of horizon.

How do Social Security and pensions change my retirement number?

Every $1,000/month of guaranteed lifetime income reduces your portfolio need by roughly $300,000 at 4%. If Social Security will pay you $2,500/month at 67, that's $30K/yr, which is $750K less portfolio needed. A defined-benefit pension paying $1,500/month is another $450K offset. Most traditional retirees have a smaller true portfolio need than the headline '25× spending' number suggests — but only if those income streams are reliable (Social Security trust fund solvency, pension plan funding status).

When should I claim Social Security?

Full retirement age is 67 for most people; you can claim as early as 62 with a ~30% reduction, or delay until 70 for an 8%/year increase. Cross-over math: claim at 62 if life expectancy under 78; claim at 67 if 78–83; delay to 70 if 83+. Most people underestimate how long they'll live — average life expectancy for a 65-year-old today is 83 (men) to 86 (women). Delaying to 70 is usually the right call for healthy retirees with other income sources.

What about Medicare and healthcare costs?

Medicare starts at 65 and covers ~60% of retiree healthcare. The average retiree couple spends $330K–$450K on healthcare over retirement (Fidelity 2024 estimate), of which Medicare covers most medical services but not long-term care, most dental, or premium gap coverage (Medigap, Part D, Part B premium scaling). Budget $6,000–$10,000/year per person in retirement for everything Medicare doesn't cover, more if you want concierge medicine or Medicare Advantage alternatives. Long-term care — the $300K+ nursing-home risk — is separate.

Should I adjust my retirement number for inflation?

The 4% rule already bakes inflation in — withdrawals grow with inflation every year, per Bengen's original methodology. You don't separately inflate your retirement number; the 25× multiplier already assumes 30 years of inflation-adjusted spending from the portfolio. If you want to compare to a future date (“how much will I need in 20 years?”), inflate your current spending by 3%/year and multiply the inflated number by 25. But the current-dollar number is the honest starting point.

What if I want to retire in a lower-cost country?

Geo-arbitrage is one of the three largest levers in retirement planning, along with spending and withdrawal rate. A couple spending $80,000/year in Phoenix needs $2M at 4%. The same lifestyle in Lisbon runs $42,000/year ($1.05M at 4%) or Mexico City at $34,000/year ($850K). Your Social Security and most US pensions follow you internationally (with some caveats on specific countries and visa-based residency requirements). The math shifts dramatically even for retirees who spend half the year in the US and half abroad.

What assumptions does this calculator use?

Default: 4% safe withdrawal rate (25× annual gap spending), inflation-adjusted withdrawals over retirement horizon, Social Security benefits as entered (the calculator doesn't estimate them for you — use ssa.gov's estimator for your personal number), no pension unless you enter it, no tax drag (gross spending number). Tax on portfolio income IS a real factor for US retirees — add 10–25% to your retirement number if you're not using tax-advantaged accounts and plan to live in a US state with income tax.

How does this differ from Dave Ramsey or Boldin?

Ramsey's investment calculator assumes 10–12% nominal returns with no inflation adjustment — Ramsey's numbers are famously optimistic and designed to motivate saving, not plan retirements. Boldin ($70/yr) does deep US-domestic scenario modeling with actual Social Security lookup, Medicare, Roth conversions — if you're US-resident and staying US-resident, it's probably worth the cost. This calculator covers the 'what if I move abroad' case neither of them addresses, with honest 5–7% real return assumptions and 260+ cities of cost-of-living overlay.

I'm behind on retirement. What do I do?

Three levers, in order of impact: (1) cut retirement spending — every $1,000/yr less is $25K less portfolio needed, (2) work longer — each extra year of saving + compounding is roughly equivalent to having 10–15% more portfolio at retirement, (3) geo-arbitrage — cutting cost of living in half cuts the portfolio need in half. Combining all three (modest spending, work to 70, retire abroad) can close even a 15-year shortfall. The honest answer is that someone 55 with $200K saved has limited options but they're not zero options.

Can I retire on Social Security alone?

For most US workers, no — Social Security replaces roughly 40% of pre-retirement income for a median earner, which means significant lifestyle compression. But in low-cost locations it's different: a $2,500/month Social Security check is $30,000/year. That's survival-level in most US metros but genuinely comfortable in Mérida, Medellín, Cuenca, Chiang Mai, or Porto. The geo-arbitrage + Social Security combination is how millions of retirees with modest savings make it work — the literature just doesn't highlight it because US financial media assumes US residency.

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