Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
How much can you safely spend in retirement? Based on 97 years of actual market data — not assumptions.
50
Sustainable withdrawal rate at age 50 (50-year horizon)
3.65%
60/40 stocks/bonds · 90% historical survival · Plan to age 100
SWR by retirement age (60/40 portfolio)
How allocation affects your SWR at age 50
100/0
3.61%
$3,008/mo
80/20
3.80%
$3,167/mo
60/40
3.65%
$3,042/mo
40/60
3.42%
$2,850/mo
20/80
2.67%
$2,225/mo
How this works
We tested every possible retirement starting year from 1926 to 2022 using actual S&P 500 and 10-year U.S. Treasury bond returns (Shiller dataset). For each age and allocation, we found the highest withdrawal rate where at least 90% of historical periods survived without depleting the portfolio.
Withdrawals are inflation-adjusted (real returns). All rates assume you plan to age 100. This is the same approach used in the original Trinity Study.
Beyond the 4% Rule
The famous “4% rule” was designed for a 30-year retirement starting at 65. But if you're retiring at 40, your money needs to last twice as long — and 4% may be too aggressive. If you're retiring at 75, 4% is too conservative and you're leaving money on the table.
This calculator shows you the actual sustainable withdrawal rate for your specific age and portfolio allocation, based on every possible retirement starting year from 1926 to 2022. No Monte Carlo guessing — just real historical data.
All rates are in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. A 4% SWR on a $1M portfolio means $40,000/year in today's dollars, increasing with inflation each year.