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Alternative to Wade Pfau's retirement calculator

Wade Pfau: why the 4% rule probably doesn't hold in 2026.

Wade Pfau is the retirement income researcher most worth reading. His CAPE-based analysis argues that high current valuations mean safe withdrawal rates should be lower than 4%. Here's what his research implies for your retirement number.

Assumed return

6.0%

Withdrawal rate

3.2%

Savings rate

—

professor of retirement income at The American College

What Wade Pfau's Numbers Mean For You

Using Wade Pfau's assumed 3.2% withdrawal and 6.0% return. "Years to FI" assumes a $50,000 starting portfolio and $2,000/month contributions.

Annual SpendingFIRE # (Wade Pfau)FIRE # (4% rule)Years to FI
$40,000$1,250,000$1,000,00022.0y
$70,000$2,187,500$1,750,00029.7y
$120,000$3,750,000$3,000,00037.8y

The Methodology

Pfau's research combines valuation-based return forecasts (CAPE ratio → expected 10-year returns) with Monte Carlo simulation. His 2012 paper with Finke and Blanchett argued that at a CAPE above 20, historical success rates for the 4% rule drop materially. He's since published extensively on dynamic spending strategies (floor + upside, bond tents, Guyton-Klinger guardrails). His current recommendation for 2020s retirees is closer to 3.25-3.5% as a starting rate, with dynamic adjustment.

Citations

  • “CAPE-adjusted SWR: ~3.25% at current valuations” — Pfau, Finke, Blanchett (2020), 'The 4% Rule Is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World'
  • “Dynamic withdrawal > static 4%” — Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook (2021)
  • “Bond-tent glidepath reduces sequence risk” — Pfau and Kitces (2013), 'Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glidepath'

Our Honest Take

Where Wade Pfau is right

Pfau's research is the most rigorous ongoing work in retirement income. The CAPE-based argument is mathematically serious, and retirees who model around a single 4% number are often ignoring sequence risk that Pfau's work quantifies.

Where we differ

Agreement. Our SWR Calculator uses CAPE-aware adjustments by default, and our drawdown tool supports Guyton-Klinger guardrails and floor-and-upside strategies alongside static SWR. Pfau's frameworks are built into our defaults.

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Where You Retire Changes Your Number

Wade Pfau's math assumes a generic US cost of living. The state or country you retire in can move your FIRE number by 30-70%. Start with a tax-friendly state or an international destination:

Florida

No income tax

Texas

No income tax

Portugal

D7 + NHR

Thailand

Territorial

Browse all 50 US states → · International retirement guides →

This page is an independent educational analysis of Wade Pfau's publicly stated retirement methodology. It is not officially endorsed by or affiliated with Wade Pfau or their organization. Retirement planning involves significant uncertainty — consult a qualified fiduciary advisor before acting on any calculation.